Print out and use this practice worksheet as you move through each tool in the Basic Guide. Keep returning to the same problem once again after you finish any particular tool and fill in the information for that tool. This will help you so you can see how each thinking tool changes your understanding.
1. Name the real problem
My problem, decision, belief, conflict, or question is:
Why this matters in my real life, work, relationships, health, money, planning, learning, or civic judgment:
2. State the exact decision, belief, or question at stake
The exact decision, belief, or question I need to clarify is:
A better one-sentence version of the issue is:
3. Define the key terms
Important words or phrases that need clearer definitions:
-
- ______________________________ means ______________________________
- ______________________________ means ______________________________
- ______________________________ means ______________________________
4. Separate observations from interpretations
Three observations, facts, measurements, records, or directly known details:
Three interpretations, assumptions, stories, or meanings I may be adding:
5. State my current conclusion and confidence level
My current conclusion is:
My confidence level is: ________%
Reason for this confidence level:
What would increase my confidence?
What would lower my confidence?
6. Ask what would change my mind
One piece of evidence, result, expert critique, repeated pattern, or real-world outcome that would change my mind is:
If nothing could change my mind, I need to ask whether I am investigating reality or defending identity, fear, loyalty, ego, habit, or group pressure.
7. Break my argument into premises and conclusion
Premise 1:
Premise 2:
Premise 3:
Conclusion:
Does the conclusion actually follow from the premises?
Yes / No / Not sure
What is weak, missing, vague, or assumed?
8. Write the strongest fair opposing view
A fair version of the strongest opposing view is:
A person who disagrees with me might be partly right because:
What I still think they are missing is:
9. Create a testable hypothesis and prediction
My testable hypothesis is:
If this hypothesis is true, I would expect to see:
If this hypothesis is false or weak, I might see:
10. Check evidence quality
The strongest evidence I have is:
The weakest evidence I have is:
Important missing evidence is:
A source, comparison, expert, dataset, or direct observation I should check is:
11. Check probability, base rates, and comparison cases
The relevant base rate, background frequency, or comparison case is:
How this changes my confidence:
12. Check causality
Possible cause I am considering:
Possible alternative cause:
Possible confounder or third factor:
Plausible mechanism linking cause and effect:
13. Check bias
One bias that may affect my thinking is:
Why this bias may be active here:
One de-biasing move I will use:
Examples: seek disconfirming evidence, ask a fair critic, look at base rates, delay the decision, write down predictions, compare alternatives, or lower confidence until stronger evidence appears.
14. Choose one small next action
The next action, test, conversation, research step, or small experiment I will take is:
When I will do it:
What result I expect:
What result would surprise me:
15. Review what happened
Review date:
What actually happened?
Was my confidence too high, too low, or about right?
What did I learn?
What should I do next?
Does this problem still fit the Basic Guide, or does it now need Intermediate tools because it involves repeated failure, interacting causes, delayed consequences, competing incentives, or system behavior?
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