Special note: It is important to share a bit of the background for why this white paper linked belon exists. For some time, at the Universe Institute and Job One For Humanity, we have been concerned that major old or new regional conflicts would intensify or flare up, or possibly even WW III could be triggered, accelerating the ongoing climate-driven die-off already underway, now being driven by the many primary and secondary consequences of climate change. We have also been concerned that, because of the many accelerating consequences of climate change act as a threat multiplier, amplifier, and additional disruptor to the other 12 crises of the polycrisis humanity now faces, and that most global inteligence agencies are still using the significantly underestimated UN IPCC climate change consequence and timetable calculations, we needed to publish this white paper to attempt to remedy what appears to be a serious undervaluing of the risks, probabilities and timetables surrounding old and new regional conflicts, the potential of World War III, and the accelerating primary and secondary consequences of climate change.
We were also deeply concerned that considerably more intensified regional conflicts and the growing potential for World War III would occur well before the most serious primary and secondary consequences of climate change manifest globally, making climate change consequence-driven emergency recovery, adaptation, resilience-building, and migration even more difficult. We suspected that correcting underestimated climate change issues would significantly increase the probability of, and shorten the time frames for, regional wars or a possible World War III. We were right, but we were surprised that not only has it significantly changed the risk profiles, probabilities, and time frames for regional war and the potential for World War III, it also moves the worst of those conflict forecasts right in the middle of an exponential acceleration of the primary and secondary consequences of climate change.
To produce this white paper, we used both traditional resources and, in areas where we felt there was significant underestimation of the primary and secondary consequences of climate change and their time frames, we used the Universe Institute's updated 2026 climate change analysis. We also used this critical climate change process description for what is called the Climageddon Feedback Loop and its forecast timeframes, because we strongly believe most global intelligence agency analysts are seriously underweighting future regional conflict and World War III threat probabilities and timeframes, either because they are unaware of the Climageddon Feedback Loop process, or they are untrained on or unable to proficiently execute the advanced new DMAP analysis processes.
From what we understand, although only through indirect evidence, it appears that US intelligence agencies have very few DMAP-trained and proficient analysts, while Chinese and Russian intelligence agencies seem to have significantly widened the DMAP proficiency gap. (It should be noted that, because Chinese culture has embraced dialectical thinking in various forms for thousands of years, DMAP's quicker assimilation into Chinese intelligence agencies is not as great a leap as it appears to be for Western intelligence agencies.)
Click here to read this white paper titled "Final Risk Report: Regional War and World War III Under Climate, Resource, and Governance Stress."
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